337
FXUS65 KLKN 122023
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
123 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more day of dangerously warm temperatures

* Monsoonal moisture will move northward into Eastern Nevada early
  next week

* Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through Thursday

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Unusually warm temperatures continue
today, particularly in eastern Nevada, with temperatures in the
upper 90s and a few locations expected to creep into the triple
digits. Satellite imagery shows cloud cover expanding in the
western half of the forecast zone, which will keep temperatures a
few degrees cooler than the eastern half. These clouds are also
the first sign of the incoming weather pattern that will be the
main story of this forecast. A strong upper level high pressure
center is setting up over the Plains and is expected to funnel
monsoonal moisture into the Southwest for at least the next
several days. Some of this moisture could arrive early enough to
fuel isolated showers or thunderstorms today, but with about a
5-10% chance of occurrence, showers were not included in the final
forecast. Moisture will absolutely arrive by tomorrow, however,
with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
across mainly central Nevada. Moisture expands into northern
Nevada by Tuesday, bringing the showers and thunderstorms with it.
By Tuesday, precipitable water values are expected to be 200% to
250% of standard, and the most widespread shower coverage of the
forecast is expected as a result. A somewhat drier air mass is
expected to enter Nevada from the west for Wednesday through
Friday, but it will still be anomalously wet and capable of
supporting showers, especially in eastern Nevada. Given both the
excessive atmospheric moisture available and the potential for
showers to impact the same areas day after day, a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall is in place for Tuesday through Thursday.
Atmospheric moisture and associated storm potential is currently
expected to restrengthen for the weekend, but model variance
regarding upper level steering flow means the location of the
strongest moisture is still in flux.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in well above
normal temperatures today, cooling slightly for the rest of the
forecast. Very low confidence in showers today. High confidence in
monsoonal moisture this week, but moderate confidence in showers
as described above. Moderate confidence in excessive rainfall
potential Tuesday through Thursday. No changes were made to base
NBM output.

&&


.AVIATION...VFR conditions and periods of gusty winds 20-25KT will
be the prevailing conditions at all sites. A shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at any terminal, however
probability was much too low for TAF inclusion, at about 10%. Any
cell that does form near a terminal would be capable of producing
gusty erratic winds up around 40KT.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...One final day of unusually hot conditions before
monsoonal moisture effectively cuts off fire weather concerns
through the end of the week. Anomalously high atmospheric moisture
is expected to remain in place through the end of the week.
Wetting thunderstorm chances are present beginning Monday, mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening
NVZ031-034-035-038-039.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday NVZ033.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion